Our 2009 predictions are here.
Our 2010 predictions are here . . .
My Predictions From last Year: I think I got lighter cheaper computers right, online gaming, and am mixed if I was right about people wanting multi-functional devices I was totally wrong about Twitter being sold.
This year's predictions:
- No Twitter Sale. Twitter will remain dependent on deals, but it's now survivable and will be signing more. It will become a Google-like omnipresent service.
- iTablet of some kind by or before Q3. It'll be about $1000, and be mainly pitched as a mix of computing and media device. Sales will be OK at first. This will launch the Tablet Wars for sure as everyone else is ready to jump in on this. The promotion, curiosity, and opportunities of tablets will be a bit like e-readers; people will want them no matter what, and whatever flaws there may be, tablets will become legitimate parts of people's technology lifes.
- All sorts of reader/e-Reader/e-book technology will come out. This will slow, but it's not over yet. Expect brands/makes to start dying off, being replaced, or consolidated by years end.
- Desktops continue to go away, replaced by Laptops and Netbooks. More households will move to multiple computing devices.
- Increased prominence of Linux with Chrome, leading to more Linux awareness in 2010. Chrome and Android have opened the gate to Linux use and that and Mac will put more pressure on Windows.
- Smartphones and Netbooks continue to be big deals for people as they want small, portable, practical technology.
- Social Media will continue to be prominent, but there will be some backlash against the big names, overuse, and some impractical elements.
- Let’s get the big prediction out of the way right now – 2010 will be the Year of the Tablet. Apple’s tablet will finally arrive with a splash somewhere around Memorial Day, will receive a huge amount of press and will be enthusiastically sought out by the Mac hardcore, despite its hefty price tag. (In true Apple fashion, there won’t be enough tablets to meet the demand). However, the real industry explosion will come when the Android-powered tablets arrive, providing a device that’s less expensive than Apple’s and still powered by a snazzy OS.
- Speaking of Google-based OSs, Chrome will make increasing inroads into the netbook market, making Microsoft extremely nervous – but the public won’t abandon their Windowsbooks entirely, since lots of people want to stick with a familiar system.
- AOL and Yahoo will both continue to flounder helplessly as the Web world they helped create moves past them. Both companies are getting by largely on the strength of their instant messengers. I know I called for it last year and it didn’t happen, but I think both companies are in dire enough straits right now that they will think of a merger, or sell off their messengers and give up the ghost.
- Google will follow through on its threat to cut out the middleman and unveil its own Google-branded Android phone. There will be a momentary panic among T-Mobile and Verizon that they will pull Android support from other phones, but that won’t happen.
- Desktop machines will start to fade from usage in the average American home as powerful laptops become more affordable and accessible. We will move closer to a reality where laptops are the new desktops, netbooks are the new laptops, and smartphones/tablets are the new netbooks.