I think Trump is going to loose the election in 2016. I give it a small chance that he won’t even get the Republican nomination if the Republican convention turns to chaos; it’d give some insiders a chance to derail him. The media may freak out as he gets closer to the nomination (or the election) and do it’s job. This far aside, what happens after Trump?
That’s something I’m having a hard time conjuring a vision for. There’s bits and pieces there, but no picture, like a puzzle or a shredded photo.
Trump Won’t Loose Well: He doesn’t know how to loose. Unless he is utterly defeated and humiliated (which would require some kind of massive meltdown/failure that media and Republicans follow up on), he’s not going to actually quit. He’ll threaten, bring lawsuits, possible found his own media empire (as some speculate he plans to). He’ll be around.
(This is probably why it’d be good for the Republicans to try and ditch him if they can, it derails him before a melt down as the nominee.)
He’s Got Angry Followers: Enough said. I’m honestly nervous about what’ll happen in Cleveland, though I assume my worries are overblown – until the Dallas debacle. But these are people who won’t react well to his loss, and will probably back him as he raises hell after losing – check out this guy.
The Republicans Are In A Bind: We may blame them for Trump (I do), but the party really has neither the process nor leadership to extract themselves from Trump. They can’t extract themselves from his followers, who are the Southern Strategy come home to roost. They party is also facing dismal demographic problems on top of many states where modern Republican philosophy has failed. There’s no there in there.
The Republicans Have A Trust Problem: Trump represents a massive black eye to the party. How many people have decided not just #NeverTrump but #NeverRepublican? The Republicans are in a loose-loose situation here – image problems, a base that compounds them.
The Media Are Clueless: The Media are clueless, and honestly we’ve been failed by any news show that doesn’t have a former Daily Show correspondent on it. I can see the media finally digging into Trump’s past – I can’t see them handling a real public meltdown of a major figure. When Trump looses, and likely goes on a tantrum/rampage they news isn’t going to be sure how to handle it. They’re going to look stupid – well stupider.
(I sometimes toy with suggesting that Trump is the invention of a liberal media trying to destroy the Republicans. Except by now a small part of me sees this is kind of true.)
The vague image I see in these facets is of an angry Trump lashing out after a loss, refusing to give in, threatening lawsuits and worse, and followers likely to turn violent. I then imagine a Republican Part and a Media simply unable to know what to do, with disjointed responses and happy-face reporting over dismal truth.
I certainly can’t see Republicans recovering. I can’t see respect for the media returning. I’m not sure a third party will come of this, but the Trump forces will be there.
What I can see, a ray of light perhaps, is this is the time people can rise up and be the adults in the room. I do see a bit of an opportunity, albeit a dismal one brought on by something that never should have happened.
Sadly I’m more sure of the darkness than the light right now.