Technology

Facebook Fallout, Alarmism, and You

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Yeah, you probably saw that Paul Graham of Y Combinator is predicting dismal times for startups.  That is, until you read the content, and realize he’s simply noting that Facebook’s IPO decline could be bad for some startups and mean they have to focus differently.

Of course his rather rational statements (based indeed, on limited knowledge) are making headlines without being actually, well, discussed.

So first of all, I’d say it’s not a question of people being leery of startups, but more being more cautious with their VC.  Fine.  They should be and have been.  This is a given and was probably going to happen anyway – I’d rather it happen after an IPO drop then some huge, insane, bubble.

Secondly, yes, startups shouldn’t do stupid stuff with money.  That’s a really good thing to bring up, and it’s been said for about 13 years.  Many have listened.

No, the Facebook IPO is not the doom of Silicon Valley, or your career, or anything else.  Graham is making the point that caution is a watchword.  That’s it.

Me, I say “good.”

– Steven Savage

 

Is It Time For Apple To Buy Facebook?

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This article pretty much blew my mind.  Go read it.

Of course when you consider it, it makes sense.  Facebook is sort of flailing left and right but has a userbase.  Apple knows they’re not good at social networks.  Facebook has talked Phones, Apple made THE Phone.  Facebook does a lot of integration – so does Apple.  The article also notes Apple could turn this around to be part of the App store.

Really, just read the article.

Anyway, what’s mind-blowing about it is twofold:

First, that it’s entirely possible.  The stock is down, it seems potentially win-win, and seriously, Apple is awash in cash.

Second, is that we’re even talking about this.  It’s a good reminder of how much money is sloshing around tech right now, and a flashback to the whole MSNBC experience of times past.  Just imagine if something like this does happen, it could easily be a trend.

Do I see it happening?  I’d put the odds at less than 50%.  But I see it as possible.

For us geekonomists, this is fascinating to be sure.  But there’s another career takeaway here: we’re playing among behemoths.  Some of them can very radically alter the course of technology and the economy.  It may or may not be a good idea, or beneficial, or wise, but it can happen.  In this case I see the sense to it, but you never know.

– Steven Savage
Steven Savage is a Geek 2.0 writer, speaker, blogger, and job coach for professional and potentially professional geeks, fans, and otaku. He can be reached at https://www.stevensavage.com/

Facebook Phone? Time To Hang Up

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Yeah, if you’ve been kicking around there’s intermittent rumors about Facebook adding a phone to their repeitoire.  This probably has some of us thrilled and thinking of the career options, but let me say it’s not making a lot of sense geekonomically.

  • First, Facebook is dealing with the recent IPO debacle.  Any new radical move isn’t going to instill confidence and may not instill curiosity.
  • A move to hardware beyond a partnership is going to be insanely hard.  The competitors are established, the market’s margins aren’t the greatest, and Facebook has rep issues.  Are they honestly going to compete with, say, Apple?
  • What more can they offer that others can’t?  Just integration with their services.  They can offer that many ways.
  • They’d have to gear up to do it, and that requires burning money, making alliances, and hiring people who think this is going to work.  I’m not so sure on a lot of this.

If Facebook does indeed go for the phone, I’d be cautious in many ways.  I see a lot of strikes against them in doing this, so if that recruiter comes a-calling, be skeptical.

Oh, and imagine what happens if they try this and fail . . .

– Steven Savage