economics

Urban Sprawl Is Bad For . . . Income Mobility?

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So short form is a University of Utah study found Urban sprawl is bad for income mobility.  There’s one I didn’t see coming.

Basically, it seems sprawl reduces access to jobs and plays some role in segregation by various factors  None of this is actually shocking (especially when you consider lousy transport in some sprawl), but is a really interesting reminder of how location seriously affects life and job prospects.

I can definitely say in Silicon Valley I see the advantage of density – more job prospects for people, better contacts, more chances to learn, etc.  It’s paid off for a lot of people I know.

It’s also a great reminder to take a look at where you live, work, and may want to move to.  Sprawl was always a warning to me – I was worried about commuting and about an overheated home economy in the past.  Now it looks like there’s much more to be concerned about.

  • Steve

Career Advice For 2016: Watching for 2017

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So here we are at the end of 2015, a year of massive . . . well massive everything, both good and bad . . . and 2016 is coming.  So what does the Geek Job Guru think about 2016 and your careers (in the US)?

The strange thing is most of it is about 2017.

Economy In General

So first of all the economy in the US seems to be doing OK overall right now but remember we came out of the worst recession since the depression, and not everyone caught up.    This Salon article is worth reading, and though it focuses on the worst and ignores subtleties (for instance, some people may not have liquid cash but do have assets, it does help paint a picture that the US middle class on down isn’t doing too hot.  A good economy doesn’t mean good for all.

This is also on top of student loan debt, etc.

I also share some of the concerns about the world economy as detailed by Larry Elliott in The Guardian – China’s probably-contracting economy, the Eurozone ups and downs, and Brazil (which I hadn’t paid attention to).

So my short form take on the US Economy is meandering and a lot of people aren’t doing too hot – good for some, OK for others, but a lot of people are being hosed.  In turn we’ve got some bumps in the world economy.

I don’t see the world economy hitting a big bump in 2016 – but I see it as a distinct possibility in 2017 as there’s too many things that can go wrong.  Unless it’s minor, its impact will be extended as so much of the US has not recovered.  Collapse or some kind of dystopian nightmare?  No. But it’ll depend on other issues . .

Politics

Politically, let’s face it the Republican party is in a meltdown with Trump.  I give him odds to win the nomination, but I don’t see him winning.  However the party will likely take an obstructionist route in politics – well, continue it.  Trump on the other hand will stick around to make trouble.

The Democrats will probably unify behind Clinton, and if she’s smart (and she is) she’ll outreach to the Sanders constituency.  Trump’s antics allow her to move to the left (which, to show my biases, we need), by driving moderates into her area.  A big issue for government functioning is if Clinton has coattails so she brings in enough change to keep the Republicans from being obstructionist.

Your politics aside – my politics aside – the gridlock as of late has been terrible.  One look at our poor infrastructure and erratic politics will tell you that.  To be blunt I think the Democrats will allow us to better navigate upcoming economic bumps.

If on the other hand Trump wins, against all odds, he will be massively disruptive to put it mildly.  But I don’t expect it.

The US political situation will affect how bad a likely bump is.  If the Republicans win or win enough to be obstructionist, we’re going to grind on and the 2017 bump will hurt a lot of people.

Jobs In General

Don’t see a lot of change on the job front per se, which is actually not good for everyone.  you can get a gander at the top paying jobs in the US according to Business Insider – which you’ll note require degrees and training.  For people without degrees, you can check out BI’s non-degree job guide – but training and speciality work is also required.

In a lot of cases you see the same patterns time and again – be involved in health care, engineering, building/maintenance, mechanicals, technology, and transport.  And yes, IT is good but I’ve previously covered that getting in on the ground level is hard.

If you’re senior at a job there’s always reasons to be concerned, but I think you’re probably safer, at least in IT – and if you’re skilled you’re also hard to replace, especially if you’re hands-on.  No one outsources their Dentist or HVAC construction.

The problem is if you’re starting out, you need to start out fast, have a plan, measure progress, and get the hell trained.

Also you’ll notice a lot of jobs aren’t particularly “geeky.”  Work with things that fit you and be willing to evolve.

Where This All Goes

So my basic take on jobs for 2016 is:

Prepare for things to “go bump” in 2017.  Be ready with savings, plans, etc.  I’m not guaranteeing it’ll happen, but I’m suspicious.

  • If you’re Senior in your job, it’s more a case of holding on – saving money, keeping up a rep, getting some extra training.  This is especially true if your job is hard to outsource or replace.
  • If you’re entry-level, you should work to get yourself to some senior level experience before 2017.  Actually doing it at reasonable speed is a good idea anyway.  Work to make sure you’ve got options and are established.
  • If you’re just starting out – pick careers carefully, watch your finances, and have backup plans.  Be ready to live with your parents, friends, etc.  Be willing to work on a more stable, less interesting career – you can always change later.
  • If you can’t do your perfect job, do what you can but also be willing to “careerize” a hobby to explore options.  I recommend that anyway, but it may be nice to have options anyway.

 

This will be amplified – or decreased – by our political situation in the US.

Now past 2017?  I’m not sure.  Too far out for me.  But I think 2016 means we have time to prepare for 2017.

And we should

– Steve

 

Ready For The Next Economic Bump – And For Those Who Aren’t?

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So no I don’t think we really “recovered” from the Great Recession.  Some of us did.  Some of us didn’t.  Some people’s lives are getting worse.

And though I don’t expect another dot-com bubble, there’s plenty to be concerned about.  I’m concerned about student debt, about income inequality, about whatever Putin is up to in Russia, about the climate.  Narrowing this down to economic issues, we’ve got enough going on that at some point we can expect another big bump in the economic road.

Another recession.  Another thing akin to the housing market collapse if not quite as bad – general slowdown, the student loan debt issue spiking early, more middle east trouble.  There’s enough problems we can expect something.

There’s two factors to consider here.

First, we all have to be ready, because I think the next bump, the next recession is a “when” not an “if.”  There’s too many threats to economic stability to ignore, let alone the fact that there’s always cycles of up and down.  Everyone should have a plan to:

  1. Save enough money to survive a downturn (I figure minimum going six months with no salary whatsoerver).
  2. Be able to relocate if needed with relative ease if needed – or work elsewhere for awhile.
  3. Have a few branching possibilities for their life and career.

It’s not survivalism (which I don’t support, survivalism has a way of being a self-fulfilling prophecy), it’s just having that plan in your pocket just in case.  You may never need it, but having one helps.

But the other factor?

Secondly, how many people won’t have a plan for the above or can’t.

That’s actually a bigger concern.  After the Great Recession wore people out, destroyed savings, disrupted lives, I’m concerned a lot of people simply can’t survive another recession, as previous experience has left them without the savings, with debt, and with low income – an issue that has been discussed for years.  Note discussed, not much has been done.

So when we hit the next economic bump, how many people won’t be able to make it?

That’s a real issue that’s hard to plan for.  If the American economy hits a bad streak, it could devastate a lot of the population.  That may mean the next economic downturn is going to have a lot more severe consequences by the fact so many people are living less stable lives.

And . . . it’s hard to plan for that.  It’s hard to get a grasp of how bad it is for people, how vulnerable they are – and what it means for any economic downturn.  Your survival plan, my survival plan, for a recession may not be as effective when so many people’s lives become much worse. Any recession could be worse than past data predicts because our socio-economic foundations are much weaker.

It’s also a reminder that part of your life plan, your career plan, of just being a good citizen is to be aware of these issues and vote on them.

I’d still make plans for the future, to be ready for that bump.  Just remember it may be a lot bumpier, so make wise choices . . .

  • Steve