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The Recovery Is The Hidden Problem

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(This column is posted at www.StevenSavage.com, Steve’s Tumblr, and Pillowfort.  Find out more at my newsletter, and all my social media at my linktr.ee)

So right now people seem pretty worried about the US economy (yes, we still have one, in theory). AI is starting to hit predictable skids, data centers are both annoying people and not completing as fast as claimed, Iran hasn’t met a Strait they didn’t want to shut down, and so on. A lot of people are predicting some kind of crash of the stock market and the US economy.

Now I have my concerns on that, which perhaps I’ll share another time. But having been through many an economic crisis since being born in the late 60s, I have another concern – the recovery from a likely crash or severe downturn.

Namely, my concern is that there won’t be one like we’re used to. There may not really be one to speak of.

Recoveries take awhile. The 2008 crisis took five years for the stock market to recover – and the stock market isn’t the economy. The history of the 2008 crisis and its many year followup is wild, and I’m sure we all know people who didn’t recover or didn’t live long enough to recover.

This is where I get concerned about the next US downturn, which is almost certainly coming. I don’t think we’ll have the kind of recovery we’re used to, and it may be a dismal slog after a “new normal.”

Here’s why:

First, our position in the world is shot. We’re losing allies who are bypassing us for defense, technology, trade, etc. We won’t come back as fast as long as other people don’t trust us.

Second, the Iran situation has long-term impacts from the rearrangement of trade to affecting growing cycles due to fertilizer shipments. Will iran keep blockading the Strait of Hormuz (and possibly the Red Sea)? If Iran does regulate traffic under some agreement, the throughput won’t be the same. If Iran just opens up there’s still months of securing the area and clearing mines. The impacts will have repercussions for years.

Third, it’s pretty clear our stock market is propped up on a few big players. Any of those take a hit and who replaces them? For that matter, who might try to replace them and inflate values – only to make mini-crashes.

Fourth, a lot of Americans have been on the edge for awhile. They won’t have a recovery if there’s not enough to recover with. Young people already facing enormous headwinds won’t be able to get going.

Fifth, in no way do I trust our current government to do any kind of effective bailout – corrupt or otherwise! I mean I trust corrupt, but not effective. I have big problems with the money games played in response to 2008, not enough people went to jail, and we needed companies to fail while PEOPLE got supported. But there was at least some effort made – though I expect a few ham-handed efforts to keep things going.

Sixth, and finally, the US is going backwards. Science has taken a hit. We’re stuck in oil (and the people profiting from it) while the rest of the world heads for solar and wind. China and Europe are doing their thing. We’re the past.

So whatever economic crash we may see, I think the real issue will be the recovery won’t be so great. There may be no recovery to speak of, just a new normal of slower growth and less opportunities. I keep hearing Stagflation invoked, which is a flashback to my childhood and worrisome.

Sometimes it’s not the crash, it’s the recovery. And that’s where I’m even more concerned.

Steven Savage

Review: A People’s Guide to Publishing

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(This column is posted at www.StevenSavage.com, Steve’s Tumblr, and Pillowfort.  Find out more at my newsletter, and all my social media at my linktr.ee)

I picked up “A People’s Guide To Publishing” by Joe Biel to get new ideas for my self-publishing.  Biel founded Microcosm Publishing and knows what he’s doing.  The book changed my writing agenda for the next two years, and I’m going to recommend it to all writers.

The idea behind PGTP is how to start a publishing company.  That may seem to be outside the scope of most indie authors, but a good 80% of the advice applies to them as well.  The difference between “publishing company” and “indie author” is more fluid than many realize.

I learned a few things. So let’s take a look at the book.

The author, Biel, speaks from direct experience creating Microcosm Publishing and interactions with other writers and publishers.  While he acknowledges the world today isn’t the world he started in decades ago, the advice stands up because most of it he’s using right now.

Let’s talk about what the book covers (everything, but let’s list the everything).

I was delighted that the book opens about vision.  Author or future publisher, vision matters – what do you believe in and who do you serve?  Your vision helps you decide on concrete steps, so I was thrilled to see it so well explained (I’ve had to do this before).

After vision, the book covers the real nitty-gritty on publishing and not relying directly on Amazon, Ingrahm, etc.  The author believes – and wants you – to engage in actual physical books and control your printing.  Biel considers Amazon Kindle or Ingram’s POD services to be glorified vanity presses that can limit you, even if they have their uses.  He makes a good case, to be honest.

The advice given here surprised me because it made me think in different ways?  Why not make your book a ‘zine at first to test it?  Could you split distribution between a POD service and a regular printer?  Do ebooks really fit your marketing plan?  Could you just print 20 copies of your book and test it at a bookstore?

With the printing and stocking out of the way it’s time selling, marketing, and more.  This advice isn’t particuarly noteworthy, but what stands out is its practicality and explanations of why things work.  He’s very much of the return-audience, focused-effort, long-term outreach school.  This may sound overwhelming, but he even has advice on using limited time and resources.

Finally, the book discusses running your own publishing business.  Some of this may not be relevant to a solo author, but don’t skip it.  You might find out how to budget better, or understand how to protect your IP.  Like the rest of the book, right when you think “this doesn’t apply to me” it ends up applying to you.

As you guessed, this is a very complete book.  It has exercises, checklists, links, and more.  If you need more, Biel and his company have all sorts of books on writing, publishing, and “punkish” entrepreneurship.

I’d like to say more about the book beyond “buy it,” but buy it.  It’s a fantastic guide to self-publishing, even if you don’t want a company so much as a profitable hobby.

What did it do for me?  It helped me re-look at my back catalog, look into doing less e-book only books and more physical-and-e-books, and look at better ways to do print.  My regular readers know I’m planning to shake things up, this book is why.

No more rambling.  Go get it now, read it now, and use the information.  Maybe we can even learn together.

Steven Savage

Can’t Get No Validation

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(This column is posted at www.StevenSavage.com, Steve’s Tumblr, and Pillowfort.  Find out more at my newsletter, and all my social media at my linktr.ee)

Now and then I encounter or hear of a writer and their works where the person seems desperate for agreement with their worldview.  They don’t want to share an experience, you must agree, or you must be some kind of heretic.  It can be bloody nihilism of some bad horror film or airy utopia bull, but the person wants, craves that agreement.

There’s something peculiarly weird and needy about these kinds of authors and auteurs.  Much like religious evangelists, it seems they need others to feel the same as they do to know they’re real.  It’s like they’d die like Tinkerbell if not clapped for enough, they’re that empty.

I think this is why you find so many failed artists among politicians and even religious leaders, both of whom love big productions and producing media, even if ghostwritten.  Denied the ability to be famous from books or films or comedy, they seek other ways to inflict themselves on the world.  They may have changed fields, but they’re still telling tales and wanting someone to clap.

The thing about these people who need validation is how un-independent they seem to me – be they artists or politicians.  Craving validation so much, they adapt to the market and ride trends and say what works, even when it’s not them.  The author famous for ten pandering books that are famous is no different than the politician who jumps on every trend for votes and makes destructive policies.

So often a quest for validation means there’s no one left to validate – all the person has become is a series of marketing calculations and a bank balance wrapped in human skin.  The thing is the artist may write on war to get attention, the politician may start one. I’ve often said people should get experience in at least one art, so they can communicate and be aware when people are trying to manipulate them.  Perhaps I should also add that becoming familiar with the pathology of art – and art-related professions like politics and religion.

Steven Savage