politics – Page 13 – Steven Savage

So What’s After Trump?

July 10, 2016 by Steven Savage

(This column is posted at www.StevenSavage.com and Steve’s Tum

I think Trump is going to loose the election in 2016. I give it a small chance that he won’t even get the Republican nomination if the Republican convention turns to chaos; it’d give some insiders a chance to derail him. The media may freak out as he gets closer to the nomination (or the election) and do it’s job. This far aside, what happens after Trump?

That’s something I’m having a hard time conjuring a vision for. There’s bits and pieces there, but no picture, like a puzzle or a shredded photo.

Trump Won’t Loose Well: He doesn’t know how to loose. Unless he is utterly defeated and humiliated (which would require some kind of massive meltdown/failure that media and Republicans follow up on), he’s not going to actually quit. He’ll threaten, bring lawsuits, possible found his own media empire (as some speculate he plans to). He’ll be around.

(This is probably why it’d be good for the Republicans to try and ditch him if they can, it derails him before a melt down as the nominee.)

He’s Got Angry Followers: Enough said. I’m honestly nervous about what’ll happen in Cleveland, though I assume my worries are overblown – until the Dallas debacle. But these are people who won’t react well to his loss, and will probably back him as he raises hell after losing – check out this guy.

The Republicans Are In A Bind: We may blame them for Trump (I do), but the party really has neither the process nor leadership to extract themselves from Trump. They can’t extract themselves from his followers, who are the Southern Strategy come home to roost. They party is also facing dismal demographic problems on top of many states where modern Republican philosophy has failed. There’s no there in there.

The Republicans Have A Trust Problem: Trump represents a massive black eye to the party. How many people have decided not just #NeverTrump but #NeverRepublican? The Republicans are in a loose-loose situation here – image problems, a base that compounds them.

The Media Are Clueless: The Media are clueless, and honestly we’ve been failed by any news show that doesn’t have a former Daily Show correspondent on it. I can see the media finally digging into Trump’s past – I can’t see them handling a real public meltdown of a major figure. When Trump looses, and likely goes on a tantrum/rampage they news isn’t going to be sure how to handle it. They’re going to look stupid – well stupider.

(I sometimes toy with suggesting that Trump is the invention of a liberal media trying to destroy the Republicans. Except by now a small part of me sees this is kind of true.)

The vague image I see in these facets is of an angry Trump lashing out after a loss, refusing to give in, threatening lawsuits and worse, and followers likely to turn violent. I then imagine a Republican Part and a Media simply unable to know what to do, with disjointed responses and happy-face reporting over dismal truth.

I certainly can’t see Republicans recovering. I can’t see respect for the media returning. I’m not sure a third party will come of this, but the Trump forces will be there.

What I can see, a ray of light perhaps, is this is the time people can rise up and be the adults in the room. I do see a bit of an opportunity, albeit a dismal one brought on by something that never should have happened.

Sadly I’m more sure of the darkness than the light right now.

– Steve

Civic Diary 6/25/2016

June 25, 2016 by Steven Savage

(This column is posted at www.StevenSavage.com and Steve’s Tumblr)

Another crazy week. 2016 is filled with a lot of unpleasantness. This time the Brexit.

The Brexit is pretty much a great example of how people do not do well in being civicly engaged when you see how many people didn’t get what the Brexit vote was about. With the UK economy hit (and the world economy taking a blow) and people seeing surprised at the same time, it’s a grand example of BS politics, propaganda, and ill-informed voting producing real problems.

Needless to say I’m 1) keeping an eye on the economy, and 2) even more focused on staying civicly engaged. I certainly appreciate my newsfeed more.

Remember my attempts to hook up with a local political party? Well that kept getting changed due to rescheduled meetings – I think some of that was the group wanting to keep some control over attendees since in-person political meetings can at times attract some pronounced personalities. So I basically did two things:

I went to the first meeting I could find without being selective, informed people there of my goal of getting more civicly and politically involved, and got some ideas and flyers. Fortunately my pick was a group who’s interests aligned with my own, so I may have found the right organization through luck.
Dropped by the office of the local political group and got a card for the person running it. I’ll be writing them soon.

So the big lessons here is:

In-person contact seems effective.
Some – probably a lot – of political groups have issues with recruiting. In fact, one I had trouble getting in touch with asks people singing up for contact want to help with recruiting. It reminds me a lot of the issues conventions have had in recruiting.

I’m wondering if a lot of political organizations are bad at recruiter, only recruit among limited populations, etc. It might go a long-way to explaining lack of civic engagement . . . and points to something I may want to do.

So next up is checking out these groups, attending some meetings (that I don’t expect to be cancelled) and seeing how I can get involved. But I’m one step closer.

Here’s a big lesson for civic engagement – keep trying to find the right group or groups for you. At least in my case it was hard.

– Steve

Civic Diary 4/24/2016

April 24, 2016 by Steven Savage

(This column is posted at www.StevenSavage.com and Steve’s Tumblr)

OK I got off a bit on posting on my Civic Diary by a few days. Pretty crazy week.

So if you’re new to this, this is my experiment in being a better citizen. I’m posting once a week. My current major efforts are to be more aware via joining organizations and following them, writing my representatives, and in general contemplating and analyzing what to do next.

So what did I learn

First it’s easy to think our representatives do the right thing, but sometimes they do stupid ones. To wit, Feinstein, one of my reps backed a pretty badly thought out security bill in Congress. So I wrote her specifically on that. Gotta take the good with the bad – and I’m glad my continued awareness led me to figure this out.
Secondly, as I follow politics the truth of the matter is that to affect politics you have to be in an organization or be involved in one. That’s it, end of story.. When you watch the protests organized by Democracy Now, or realize how people are involved in awareness and get-out-the-vote efforts, you realize people who get stuff done make the difference. Yes, these people may be “the establishment,” but you’re not going to change that establishment until you get involved and make a counterpart or become part of it and change it. Anyway, I think I need to ask more on how I can do my part organizing or being part of an organization – and Martin Longman puts it best, so just read this column.
Third, that question of “what more can or should I do” makes me realize the limits so much of us have – time. There’s a lot of different tensions in our lives, which is a pain, but at least we can be aware of them and find a resolution. Maybe you want to be an engaged citizen but can only do so much as you’re damn busy – at least you know it, admit it, do what you can, and maybe change what you do when life is less crazy.
Fourth, political activity is not a substitute for social activity. Community work, your friends, family, city, clubs are also important. I think there’s a kind of continuity we need to find between all levels of our lives to be good citizens . . . and it’s different for each of us.
Fifth, the more I pay attention to news the more I realize how much B.S. is out there. The news is a product and it’s meant to get your attention. Be selective in your news consumption, and look for real information.
First and foremost it’s about Citizenship as Nancy LeTourneau puts it. Read that column too.
A lot of these realizations are pretty humbling. Asking how to be a good citizen kinda makes you realize where you fail or are ignorant, and suddenly you don’t get so arrogant about your fellow citizens activities.

That’s it for me. Have you started your Civic Diary yet?

– Steve