Avatar photoSteven Savage

The Dotcom Bubble 2.0 – And Not Quite

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So over at Rawstory there’s an article asking if “The dotcom bubble is about to burst again.”

I’ve been wondering about this for awhile since the first one was pretty damn awful – and now that I live in Silicon Valley, a bit closer to my heart and wallet.

Over time however, I’ve come to a different theory.  I don’t think we’ll see a repeat of the previous bubble – we’ll see something else.

Yes, there’s plenty of money going around startups.  Yes there’s some truly lame ideas people sink money into.  Yes, I’m sure there will be some very dumb investments and purchases.

But there’s also a sense going on that people know they’re gambling.  There’s balancing the odds.  Startups have been running leaner and smarter (easy when you have so much infrastructure).  We have large, stable players providing some anchors to IT.

In short, most people know what they’re in for, and I think enough awareness is built into the system to avoid a large bubble.  Small ones of course are entirely possible.  In fact, I think we’ve had mini-bubbles for quite some time.  Little areas that burst and fail early.  Regional ones.  You’re always hearing little stories, seeing stock drops and spikes/etc.

So I’m not that worried about a big bubble.

What I am worried about is a kind of weardown of the system.

Right now we have lots of people chasing startups and basically placing bets.  But if things go sour for a lot of them, investors may slowly dry up or move on – not right away, but over time.

Right now we have skill issues.  IT creates more senior jobs than junior.  Junior people may be worn out or when their startup fails not have the skillset to take other jobs.  Wages are very distorted by external pressures.

Right now we have constantly raising stakes – at some point people may not want to invest.  Maybe after awhile they go for something more stable and less erratic.

Right now we have people looking to “disrupt” the economy – but how much disruption can you do, and how much may damage the economy or cannibalize others in your space?

Also out here in Silicon Valley the insane living prices don’t exactly help.  It’s a great place, a wonderful place, but let’s just say I’m glad I have a roommate.

So my concern is not so much a bubble, but that the “frothiness” of the whole IT and dotcom world gradually goes flat from structural issues.  More financial caution.  Skill issues.  People and investors just getting worn out.  Economic changes going faster and faster until a lot of the foundation is changed or gone.  Financial challenges limiting those who can benefit – and limiting those that can make a contribution.

I’m not worried about a bubble.  I’m worried about the dotcom world and IT going kind of flat and tepid.  That, though it could go on for years, or over a decade, going “flat” is a lot harder to recover from.

  • Steven

Steve’s Update

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Hello everyone.  Crazy times, so here’s what’s up!

First, as noted in September I got a little busy with work and all.  Still don’t quite have a picture of my holiday season, but I plan for some time off.  Let’s hope I catch up and don’t spend too much time playing Team Fortress 2.  Which will really me a matter of degree.

Way With Worlds – If all goes well (meaning I’ll damn well make it happen), the editing run finishes and goes to my pre-readers by Sunday.  I’m about 70-80% proud of it now, and think it’s going to be a pretty good handbook for worldbuilders.  And, yes, there will almost inevitably be followup works . . . just not in the way you may think . . .

Resume Plus – My new jazz-up-your-resume-guide is being edited.  I am actually quite proud of this one, and proud to return to smaller ebooks.  This one was fun to write, has great advice, and will be a fantastic addition to your electronic bookshelf.  Think of it as a sister guide to “Epic Resume Go” and, yes, I may do a book bundle.

Sailor Moon Book – No, once again not releasing the title yet.  Sorry.  Anyway, we finished the analysis of our first run of interviews and we now have a serious idea of just why the show impacted people, how it impacted people, and how to portray it in the book.  We may also have gotten some insights into just how the legacy of the show impacted American media.  Next goal is to finish interviews somewhere in November, start our historical research and get writing.  Again we really don’t expect this to be out until late summer/early fall 2016.

Plot Twist Generator – OK, I’m just gonna try and get this sucker to gold and take a break.  One more push coming up!  Then I do a fun one (in fact one I may document).

  • Steve

 

Activities For The Civic Geek: Free Speech

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Free Speech isn’t just talk – it’s a real life issue, and one that’s often misunderstood.  Do something real about free speech issues in an intelligent way.

There’s two problems with Free Speech – there isn’t enough of it, and most people don’t know what the hell it’s about.

For the latter, we need more education, better understanding, and occasionally informing people they’re full of crap for thinking someone defriending them on social media is censorship.  However, I’d like to focus on the former – actively helping people get over it and understand it.

Internet drama aside, there are a lot of threats to free speech – often subtle.  A banned book list at a school library, lawsuits designed to squelch opinion, and countries outright controlling what people think and see.  Issues of internet access, net neutrality, and freedom.  Maybe we geeks can do something about it.

Something like:

  • Invite authors who’s books and works have been banned to your events.
  • Do reading groups of controversial literature.
  • Get involved with organizations that support freedom of speech, from donations to getting speakers to events.
  • Provide access to banned literature or promote it at events.
  • If it’s relevant to your geeky media (books, comics, video games) do panels or studies of free speech in various countries.

Beyond doing good and helping overcome the at-times subtle censorship people face, being involved in free speech efforts also teaches you what it’s really about.  It’s one thing when people complain someone deleted their message board comment – quite something else to realize a beloved book was widely banned in a state.  Sometimes understanding free speech is best done by seeing it’s lack.

Here’s a few groups to get you started:

  • Banned Book Week – Celebrate the freedom to read – and take a stand against censorship – with Banned Books week.
  • Free Press – A savvy organization focused on a free press.
  • Public Knowledge – An organization focusing on intersecting issues of technology and free speech – access, copyright, net neutrality, innovation, and more.
  • The Comic Book Legal Defense Fund – A non-profit organization focused on protecting the First Amendment rights of everyone in the comics/publishing/reading chain. Provides legal referrals, representation, advice, assistance and education.