News and Analysis

News Of The Day 8/9/2011

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The economy isn't as bad as we thought? The Smurfs return. Publishing gets a big lawsuit. What a day! What a pile of news!

Economics/Geekonomics:
And stocks bounce back up?. I'm pretty much getting the idea that no one listened to the S&P that much, and that this was due to the EuroCrisis.

Film:
Smurfs gets a sequel. Well there's a successful remake, and who wants to be a revival of the TV series?

Music:
OK, maybe I am wrong about a Walmart ecosystem. Walmart is shutting down it's MP3 music store.

Publishing:
A lawsuit against Apple and several publishers over e-book price fixing is out there. This is one to follow since it's big, public, names a lot of people, is on a hot subject, and it touches lots of industries near and dear to we progeeks.

Security:
Anyonymous to take on Facebook in November? I dunno, but their statement does mention political issues which fits some current trends.

Social Media:
GroupOn-like Bloomspot gets $40 million in VC. $40 million for an imitation in an unsure market? Not sure here, that is a lot of money, but i'm not sure on the business model. Take this more as a reason to keep an eye on the GroupOn-like enthusiasm – it's not gone away.

Technology:
Apple close to being the most valuable public company in the world. Just included because it's noteworthy.

Television:

Syfy, who's goal for years has been to confuse viewers, cancels Eurkea quite quickly and without much chance of resolution. Could this signal another change in their plans? An opening for a new show? Hell if I know, they're confusing me as usual.

Video Games:
Disney is strong, but its Interactive division lags. That division seems to always have trouble, but at least they have a lot of support.  I consider them quite viable as an employer, but would watch the Interactive division.

Uh-oh. THQ closed an Australian studio and eliminated a dev team in Phoenix. May want to be careful applying there for awhile.

QUESTION OF THE DAY: So what the hell is SyFy up to?

– Steven Savage

Businesses And Imitators: Too Easy To Copy?

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Remember when Groupon was going to be the next big thing?  Now of course everyone seems to be copying their model as we saw last week (http://www.fool.co.uk/news/investing/2011/08/04/will-amazon-google-and-aol-kill-groupon.aspx).

Of course I didn't expect GroupOn to survive anyway – their model seemed to be the kind that'd dilute too easy, and that would have diminishing returns (as near every ad-related internet idea has).  It seems now that before they get a chance to die off naturally, everyone else is going to squeeze them out.

It's not as if GroupOn exactly has a complex idea – it's an advanced coupon system.  There are a lot of companies in similar fields, they just did it big and made it work.

This has me thinking about imitating businesses.

If you can have imitators or many people in a similar field, and your model is simple enough to imitate, someone with money and time can easily horn in on your territory, like . . . well Google, Amazon, and so on.  This seems to be what's happening to GroupOn (at least after their failed sale).

This made me speculate on something – are we at a time where it's easier than ever to ape, imitate, or replace an existing business?

  • There are big companies that can quickly ape some business models.
  • There's so much technology, so many automated setups, so many services, you can set up a business very quickly.
  • We have investors looking for a sure thing.
  • It's a global market, so people can access talent all over – and at any time.
  • There's little piracy for new businesses – "stealth mode" may sound nice, but people also want to use social media and go viral, which means exposure . . .
  • Come to think of it, we also have a lot of people wanting to work . . .

These situations don't mean that your dream business or someone else's won't survive and dominate.  It just means it's a lot easier for people to horn in on you territory – or just destroy you.

If this is true – and I think it is something to consider – it means a few things for your future:

  • If your business model (or that of your employer) can be imitated, you'd better move fast and have an edge over competitors.
  • If your business model involves something unique that's truly hard to duplicate, you may have an edge.  In fact, if businesses and people are being more cautious about risky ventures, a risky venture by you may ironically be safer as you remove the danger of imitation.
  • I'm wondering if this means people will avoid certain businesses and ideas because they may be imitated.  This could, oddly, leave a lot of space for businesses that do "the obvious and easily imitated" because people abandoned the obvious because it was easily imitated – and no one filled the gap.

So what do you think?  Are we in a time where imitation is easy – so easy in fact it may discourage businesses from even coming together?

– Steven Savage

News Of The Day 8/8/2011

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For you media geeks, a reminder of why Lucille Ball was insanely important. From helping found the company that gave us Star Trek, to breaking racial boundaries, she did a lot. This article is a bit fluffy, but has some great reminders. For me, it's also a reminder of a good career – from pin-up girl to elder stateswoman of comedy.

Economics/Geekonomics:
A rather dismal look at the effects a second recession may have on the US. Does note that companies do have a lot of padding. I do disagree on stimulus issues – namely we'd have to see a mix of tax hikes and tax cuts to raise revenue but ease impacts, and then serious stimulus.

The U.S. Stock Market fell 635 points today. And at least as of this writing, people are investing in treasuries, which tells me some folks don't trust the S&P (which may be some of the more interesting fallout from this mess).

Oh, and continue the Bank of America Death Watch. Remember if it goes, that's going to have severe economic impact from sheer panic alone – and their stock price isn't encouraging.

College is expensive, but still worth it by the statistics.

Note here: I'm pretty sure we've got a double-dip unless it's actively headed off.

Comics:
Disney has two Marvel films and a pixar movie coming out in 2014. Some speculation follows. Me, I want to see what happens with Ant-Man (no, seriously), because that is a real test of the company's ability to adapt oddball properties to film – and it could open the door to more odd adaptions if done right – which is something to look for if you're in film, comics, etc.

Hacking:
AntiSec hackers dump some police data in what appears to be a bit of a show/strike/reminder of their power – and because of recent arrests of supposed Anonymous members.

Anonymous takes on Syria with a hack that's almost poetic in its writing. I guess that shutdown of the internet didn't work so well for the Syrian government.  Anonymous continues to be public and involved in political areas.

Music:
SiriusXM is becoming a lot more like Pandora, which a heavy emphasis on discovery. As we've been noting, music services, ironically, are an area of increasing growth and apparently opportunity – despite there being so many.

Technology:
Two companies in interesting areas (business intelligence and databases), picked on some venture capital: PivotLink and ParAccel. Ready those resumes folks, someone's gotta spend that cash.

Speaking of hiring, Gamification company BigDoor is moving and is hiring so go get that resume in!

Non-Apple tablet shipments expected to grow in 2012. This isn't surprising really, so I include it for lack of surprise. Engineers, everyone, really needs to prepare for the Tablet Future – which reminds me to get my books on Nook . . .

A look at how Wal-Mart is using technology. I still think they have an ecosystem in mind since their low-end market is paralyzed to declining.

Apple has a new, cheaper, educational computer. I include this as noteworthy as Apple trying to target any market is noteworthy (mmm, and Amazon targeted rental textbooks recently . . .).

QUESTION OF THE DAY: So what other inroads to education would – or should – Apple make?

(Ha! And you thought I'd ask about the economy!)

– Steven Savage