analysis

So What’s After Trump?

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(This column is posted at www.StevenSavage.com and Steve’s Tum

I think Trump is going to loose the election in 2016.  I give it a small chance that he won’t even get the Republican nomination if the Republican convention turns to chaos; it’d give some insiders a chance to derail him.  The media may freak out as he gets closer to the nomination (or the election) and do it’s job. This far aside, what happens after Trump?

That’s something I’m having a hard time conjuring a vision for.  There’s bits and pieces there, but no picture, like a puzzle or a shredded photo.

Trump Won’t Loose Well: He doesn’t know how to loose.  Unless he is utterly defeated and humiliated (which would require some kind of massive meltdown/failure that media and Republicans follow up on), he’s not going to actually quit.  He’ll threaten, bring lawsuits, possible found his own media empire (as some speculate he plans to).  He’ll be around.

(This is probably why it’d be good for the Republicans to try and ditch him if they can, it derails him before a melt down as the nominee.)

He’s Got Angry Followers: Enough said.  I’m honestly nervous about what’ll happen in Cleveland, though I assume my worries are overblown – until the Dallas debacle.  But these are people who won’t react well to his loss, and will probably back him as he raises hell after losing – check out this guy.

The Republicans Are In A Bind: We may blame them for Trump (I do), but the party really has neither the process nor leadership to extract themselves from Trump.  They can’t extract themselves from his followers, who are the Southern Strategy come home to roost.  They party is also facing dismal demographic problems on top of many states where modern Republican philosophy has failed.  There’s no there in there.

The Republicans Have A Trust Problem: Trump represents a massive black eye to the party.  How many people have decided not just #NeverTrump but #NeverRepublican?  The Republicans are in a loose-loose situation here – image problems, a base that compounds them.

The Media Are Clueless: The Media are clueless, and honestly we’ve been failed by any news show that doesn’t have a former Daily Show correspondent on it.  I can see the media finally digging into Trump’s past – I can’t see them handling a real public meltdown of a major figure. When Trump looses, and likely goes on a tantrum/rampage they news isn’t going to be sure how to handle it.  They’re going to look stupid – well stupider.

(I sometimes toy with suggesting that Trump is the invention of a liberal media trying to destroy the Republicans.  Except by now a small part of me sees this is kind of true.)

The vague image I see in these facets is of an angry Trump lashing out after a loss, refusing to give in, threatening lawsuits and worse, and followers likely to turn violent.  I then imagine a Republican Part and a Media simply unable to know what to do, with disjointed responses and happy-face reporting over dismal truth.

I certainly can’t see Republicans recovering.  I can’t see respect for the media returning.  I’m not sure a third party will come of this, but the Trump forces will be there.

What I can see, a ray of light perhaps, is this is the time people can rise up and be the adults in the room.  I do see a bit of an opportunity, albeit a dismal one brought on by something that never should have happened.

Sadly I’m more sure of the darkness than the light right now.

– Steve

No Man’s Sky: Failure To Come Together

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(This column is posted at www.StevenSavage.com, www.SeventhSanctum.com, and Steve’s Tumblr)

Sorry this is late.  Busy few weeks, but now I’m back to my pre-release analysis of No Man’s Sky.  After all I love games and i love procedural generation.

We’re counting down to No Man’s Sky’s release in August.  We’re approaching the big release, and once again I’m seeing posts on the Internet asking if it will succeed or fail.  This is not unusual, but it’s time for another round of them apparently.

I’ve speculated on this possible failure before, but often concern’s about NMS focus on this component or that.  From the possible sameness of worlds to uninteresting space travel, there’s concerns about some elements, of the game.  These concerns are legitimate, but often they miss what No Man’s Sky Is about.  There’s a larger picture here for concern.

No Man’s Sky is a game about synergy, as is fairly obvious when you step back and look at the game.  Characters mine to get resources to craft new items to let their spacecraft travel farther.  Their adventures may require them to fight enemies with spacecraft that they hijacked by developing rare hacking chips, chips whose blueprints were found exploring a ruined building.  A strange technology, found in an alien ruin, may let someone survive on a toxic world.  No Man’s Sky is all about things coming together.

This is not surprising as video games are about synergy.  Good controls bring a character to live.  Clever mechanics entice the mind that learns them and influences the game experience.  Music and graphics work together to set the mood.  Good games depend on pieces working in harmony.

For No Man’s Sky, it’s even more dependent on the synergy – that’s really it’s selling point.  Where procedural worlds and exploration and crafting and all come together, the game offers a whole of an experience.  It’s not a game with clear boundaries, which is the point – it’s a supposed seamless exploration experience.  It just happens to be a very big one based on some very, very smart use of math.

This synergy is also where it can fail.

Because No Man’s Sky relies on the parts of the game coming together, there’s several possible modes of failure that can occur.

Poor Synergy: One way the game can fail is if the different parts don’t support each other properly.  Perhaps the ability to acquire resources makes the crafting parts too hard – or too easy.  Straightforward planetary exploration might contrast with hyperkinetic space combat, creating tone shifts that are hard for players to adapt to.  If the parts of the game don’t come together correctly, the game suffers because the synergy of the promise is gone – even if the parts are good.  This may be the biggest synergy risk of NMS because a dev and even a testing team would be unlikely to catch it due to being used to the product.

The Flaw: Another way I can see NMS fail is if one part of the game is done so poorly that drags the rest of the game down.  Planetary exploration is an area I’ve worried about, and if it is poorly done or dull, that diminishes the thrill of the rest of the game.  Truly egregious resource gathering could be another fun-killer as the rest of the game depends on that.  One poor part of the game could drag the rest down – the synergy backfires when one part fails really hard.

The Drudge: NMS also has to make sure that its individual components are good enough to support the game, because though one bad component might drag the game down, so can many mediocre ones.  The game may not fail on its many fronts, but if too many are uninspired or uninteresting, the synergy of them makes the game not good, but dreadfully mediocre.  The synergy of game component’s can be a double-edged swords when many are just uninspired.  I think people may be more forgiving of a game with one big flaw and ambition than one that just kind of plots.

Though I’m sure that Hello Games has thought of this, it’s worth considering for analyzing the game once it’s out, and for analyzing future games of its type.  Synergy is the strength of the gaming art.

It’s also a place where failure can happen, even if the parts are right or mostly right.

– Steve

No Man’s Sky – Release The Coding

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(This column is posted at www.StevenSavage.com, www.SeventhSanctum.com, and Steve’s Tumblr)

Last time I speculated on what would come next for No Man’s Sky. My take is that though it may have a good life (5-10 years) it’s going to end eventually. The comparative lack of interactivity is probably the killer.

My friend Serdar noted something that jumped the gun a bit in my analysis of the future – namely, that the studio should consider releasing the code. I was going that direction and wanted to expand on it.

So at some point I think NMS will end-of-life, and I’m leaning towards five years. But in that time – and at that time – Hello Games could do a few things.

First, I think they should release a planet generator that allows people to tweak various parameters – or randomize it. Serdar referred to the idea as a generator for Roger Dean Album Covers. I heartily concur. People might even pay a few bucks for it.

Secondly, the above planet generator? Pair it with some non-interactive exploration and music. After seeing what could be done on Panoramical, imagine what it’d be like to just jam to procedural music and scrolling alien landscapes?

Third, and foremost, at some point they should release all or most of the code of the game. Maybe license it, maybe free. Have the final legacy of No Man’s Sky (which will truly be foundational if it’s what they say it is), be the launching of even more children. It would doubly cement Hello Games legacy, and give innumerable people and groups and games a boost.

NMS could truly be world-changing. However there’s one more thing . . .

I think there will inevitably have to be a No Man’s Sky Next. No Man’s Sky-er. The Noer and the Manner Skye. Whatever.

Hello Games is going to learn an enormous amount of lessons from this. They will learn more about their code. They will learn more about players. They will release patches and updates and experience the limits of what their engine can do. They will, in short, be equipped to create a sequel that would outstrip what the original could do.

So, with NMS having a probable limited lifespan, my thoughts are this:

  1. Begin research for No Man’s Sky Next immediately.
  2. After a year or two release the “Roger Deanifier.” It’d also probably give any cooperative coders and 365 days of static a boost yes, I want them to team up with the guy behind Panormalical, OK?
  3. 3) As things calm down, begin work on No Man’s Sky Next – using the current NMS as a bit of a testbed.
  4. 4) When ready to release No Man’s Sky Next, drop the code of the original game on the internet.

Would releasing the code empower competitors? Doubtlessly, but you can be pretty sure they have and will have plenty. Releasing the code just cements the possibility of it.

And of course if done right, NMS Next would live on far longer than the first, becoming a doubtlessly deserved fixture.

– Steve