trends

Poll Dancing

by

Well, if you have been paying any attention to the news, you’ll see people talking about polls.  Polls this, polls that, etc.  Mostly it revolves around Nate Silver, who is being questioned about his polls showing a 75% change for Obama because . . . well I guess politics and ignorance of math.  Silver’s got a good record and doesn’t really hide anything.

Of course there has been an advantage to this in that people are paying attention to polls and asking questions about them.  The disadvantage is this seems to be pathetically political and ignorant in many cases, but at least there’s attention.

The thing is polls are inherently unsure – this is where your friend, Mr. Margin of Error comes in.  This is why people analyze them, why folks like Silver and other analysts build models and study trends.  Because yes, it is unsure, so you strive to get better.

I’m hoping as people examine polls and hear them talked about, we’ll get, on average, increased attention to how they work and how analysis works.

Sadly, I also think we’re going to see everything about polls more politicized.  Of course that could get interesting, because if you skew polls to fit a political view, you start destroying their value . . .

This is also another example of why I think math and some basic statistics/research skills are indispensable to survival.

– Steven Savage

Steven Savage is a Geek 2.0 writer, speaker, blogger, and job coach.  He blogs on careers at http://www.fantopro.com/, nerd and geek culture at http://www.nerdcaliber.com/, and does a site of creative tools at http://www.seventhsanctum.com/. He can be reached at https://www.stevensavage.com/.

The Big Score And Bad Economics

by

(Sorry for the delay in posts, been a tad busy!)

Economic policies, economic choices like careers and business plans, are of utmost importance in life.  Sun Tzu may have talked the importance of war, but I wish the guy had taken a little more time to focus on economic issues as well.  Then again he was kind of busy being brilliant.*

When one considers economic issues in a society, the most important thing is sustainability – can one maintain a functional system or even enhance it over time.   This is necessary to society as society itself is essentially a long-term thing – no long-term economics, no society as many nations have found out throughout history.  When there is no planning and cultivating of a sustainable economy (or half-baked planning constrained by ignorance, ideology, or moral faults) there is no stability, no success, and no society.

Needless to say I see great examples of bad planning and bad policy today.  Hopefully you see them, but by now fish may have no word for water.**

There are many reasons for that, but one thing I feel should be examined – and which is not examined as much as it should be – is the idea of the “Big Score.”

The “Big Score” permeates our culture and our economic culture.  It’s the lottery win, the perfect IPO release, the Big Novel that makes you famous for life.  It’s the idea of having the bit, the big victory, and then everything will be fine.  It’s the economic version of the Rapture.

In the small, the “Big Score” is believing that college degree will set you for life – and in the large it is the idea that our student loan bubble won’t hurt “us.”  In the small, the “Big Score” is the idea of the IPO that’ll make you rich forever, and in the large everyone thinking they’ll be the next Facebook before the VC pulls out.  In the small, the “Big Score” is hoping for a piddly tax break you’re convinced will jump start the economy forever, while wondering what happened to the school system.

In a way, the “Big Score” is the Winner-Take-All/Superstar effect internalized.  It’s the idea you will/can triumph and have it all fantastic forever.  You just need to get there “once”, forgetting plenty of others want to get there too.

Of course we don’t get there.  We don’t build a sustainable system, a sustainable economy, a sustainable career, a sustainable life.  We focus too much on the low-chance “Big Score” and not enough on the possibility of a sustainable economy or economic life.

Then we wonder what happened.

– Steven Savage

Steven Savage is a Geek 2.0 writer, speaker, blogger, and job coach.  He blogs on careers at http://www.fantopro.com/, nerd and geek culture at http://www.nerdcaliber.com/, and does a site of creative tools at http://www.seventhsanctum.com/. He can be reached at https://www.stevensavage.com/.

* I do recommend reading “The Art Of War” so you can know about what everyone pretends they read.

** I could have made an “underwater housing” joke here, but didn’t.  You’re welcome.

What Isn’t Education?

by

Lately I’ve been thinking over issues of education – and that, namely, we need a lot more of it.  The world is more complex, the environment is changing on us (yes, manmade global warming, taste the science), there’s new inventions every day, education is big in some countries yet under attack here in the US, student loans are insane . . .

*SLAP*

OK I’m back now.  Sorry.

Anyway, one thing that has come into my mind lately is that education is something that needs to be focused more on, more needs to be done, and more people need – and have to – be educated.  It’s a complex world out there and you need to know more and more just to function effectively.  It’s a global world out there and you have to be able to sell things to people in China, swap jokes with someone in India, and explain issues with a guy in Britain.  It’s a world where you need to know how stuff works and how to make things work.

As you may have guessed by my above rant, I’m not exactly happy with the state of formal education right now.  Actually I’m rather worried about the state of education because it affects our economy, it affects our quality of life, it affects my fellow citizens, and I don’t want to live in a society of uneducated people.

I don’t want to deal with people who wonder why the download elves haven’t gotten their files to them yet through the magic plastic tablet.*

So lately considering the dismal state of schools and  . . . well everything, I began asking myself the inevitable question: how can technology help education.

In fact this question is important for we progeeks as education is going to affect our careers directly, indirectly, and could even be our careers.  Some of my usual online gang knows that in my past job searches I was talking to several educational tech/service companies because . . . well it fits me.

It could well fit you.  The only thing is . . . where is education going with modern technology.

The problem is  . . . right now everything can be education.

We are in a very highly wired society.  If you told me ten years ago people would be watching films, reading books, and viewing pornography** on thin plastic tablets, I wouldn’t have believed you.  Now everything is about the internet, which means everything is about communication (even if that communication is trivial or B.S.)

Which means right now anything can be education.

Books can come in ebook form.

Classes can be done by video

Tutorials can be recorded and displayed.

Automated walkthrougs can be constructed

Right now we have so many ways to educate.  We’re just not using them – or finding the best way to use them.  Maybe the answer in many cases is just “here’s an online guide, now go buy the physical book and read the bloody thing,” but we still have to find the right answer.

That answer is going to be harder than people may realize.

So there’s a challenge for some of you progeeks.  Right now leveraging all this wonder to make education work in this modern age – for as many people as possible – is a big challenge.  As a teacher, developer, member of a startup, etc. you might just be one to figure out how the heck we use all this stuff to make people more informed and less dumb***.

– Steven Savage

Steven Savage is a Geek 2.0 writer, speaker, blogger, and job coach.  He blogs on careers at http://www.fantopro.com/, nerd and geek culture at http://www.nerdcaliber.com/, and does a site of creative tools at http://www.seventhsanctum.com/. He can be reached at https://www.stevensavage.com/.

* Download elves would be a great band name.

** Hey you people in coffee shops, we can see you.  The screen resolution is better than you think.

*** A lot less, please.