As I see it there are 3 major areas of change in how businesses function in our economy. These areas of change are going to vastly, vastly affect the kind of world we live and work in. These transformations will also affect any businesses we found and jobs we have (or don't have). I want to take a chance to identify these areas of change, how they interact, and what it means for us in two essays.
Frustration Friday: Bubble, Bubble, Toil and Trouble
Yes, I know. There's a Social Media bubble. I hear it discussed in the news lately, and now that Facebook is involved with Goldman Sachs and IPO talk is a fly-ing, we're going to hear even more hand-wringing discussions of The New Bubble. Then there will be debate about A Social Media Bubble. Then we will see endless articles on it. Then I will go buy myself some sake and try to forget the articles clogging my newsfeeds.
OK, let me clear it up for our pundit friends who need to fuel a 24-hour news bubble.
Of course there's a Social Media bubble. We're seeing ridiculous amounts of money thrown around for companies that may or may not be profitable – that is part of a Bubble. We're also seeing crazy amounts of cash invested in companies whose profitability may not endure – that is part of a Bubble. Potential valuations seem questionable and inflated for many companies – that is part of a Bubble.
Come on you don't need to discuss it, it's obvious and in-your face.
I mean, seriously, how much is Facebook or Twitter really worth? How do you measure it? Is Groupon's popularity and potential profitability going to last? Can we trust any financial estimation after so many meltdowns – we probably have to worry about a Bubble just because people would love to see one to try and make some money.
OK fine so we have a Bubble. Now the next thing . . .
. . . stop acting like this is some late-90's-all-over-again mess.
Look, reporters and pundits, I know you like your narratives, and I know the last Bubble where people poured money into flushmoneydownthetoilet.com is a great example of a Bubble. But I think the doomsaying getting thrown around ridiculous and fueled by memories of the last time investors went insane and invested in things like lemursonline.net and touchmynose.com.
We are not in the 90's.
Yes, some social media is overvalued. But this is not the late 90's with all its ridiculous projects and insane speculation in every niche. This is an age of leander and meaner companies, of hard lessons learned from the meltdown, of a different group of entrepreneurs. The Bubble is being called out in a limited area of economic activity. The very fact that people are calling out a social media bubble is a sign that we can avoid the economic insanity of the past.
So please, call out the Bubble, but no Doomsaying. I've been listening to the usual cycles of who's-going-to-die for years. No panic, no return to the 90's BS. Let's just report on what's going on and speculate appropriately.
I'd like to see what lessons we can learn from this Bubble unencumbered by as much B.S. as possible about the 90's.
Steven Savage
News Of The Day 1/12/2011
PC's are down, VC's are down on newer startups, Demand is down with going public. Let's . . . oh, hell, you know what I'm going to say. Let's skip the pun and get to the news!
Economics/Geekonomics:
The 20 most influential blogs in Financial Media – I read a decent amount of these (in fact I often post to them from here). Go and see if any sate your Geekonomic needs.
Guess what? A lot of big names think the size of banks is hurting the economy.
Venture Companies not as interested in younger startups.
Science:
Cleantech has done surprisingly well in 2010, here's a look at trends.
Comics:
Archie is going simultaneously digital and print – released at the same time. You may not think much of Archie, but they're doing a lot of experimenting with the brand, which is worth paying attention to. Besides, he's survived decades . .
Media:
Demand media moving ahead with going public.
Publishing:
An author looks at how Amazon is making publishers less relevant. A nice, concise analysis.
Technology:
PC Shipments lagged behind expectations in Q4 2010. No one is surprised of course.
Video Games:
For those of you missing the obvious, a further look at the fact Minecraft is insanely successful. I'd further ad what is missing here is that Minecraft built a community.
Sony wants those Jailbreaks off the net, wants damages, and is willing to get legal to do it.
This guy creates Hello Kitty mashups. I include it as it's cool. Like Fezes, or bow ties.
QUESTION OF THE DAY: Who will understand – and apply – the social lessons of Minecraft?